Pack Away 2011

Even before Monza, the word was out: Ferrari had effectively given up on 2011. While a Monza-specific package would undoubtedly be used for the Itallian Grand Prix, the word on the strip was that there would not be any further updates to the car, which would probably race on the rest of the season in a mostly Spa-spec package. Any further development parts will be field trials of the 2012 car.

We've been here before, although the situation isn't perhaps as pointless as it was back in 2009: Alonso, at least, will be back next year. And hopefully there will be a similar 2010-style payoff in 2012, as Alonso was very much alive in the championship chase right to the last event in 2010.

(I've said before that 2010 was a strange year where Red Bull and McLaren both seemed determined to not win the titles, and Ferrari's competitiveness was more due to steady reliability in high points paying positions rather than outright pace. But still, you have to be in it to win it, and the 2010 edition of Ferrari almost got there.)

We've also had the requisite round of scapegoating and otherwise musical chairs happening, none of which I expect to lead to a runaway Ferrari championship any time soon.

Ferrari as an organization is still going backwards from the Micheal Schumacher era. Look how long it took Schumacher to win his first title with Ferrari: '96 through '99 each showed promise, but the rebuilding didn't really come together until 2000.

That Raikkonen was able to sweep in in '07 and scoop the title out from under Hamilton and Alonso's nose says more about the team's competitive inertia and the quality of the team assembled before and during Schumacher's reign; the same with Massa's just-shy effort to grasp the title for himself the following year.

Since then, we've been sliding backwards. The people who built and composed that super team of the early '00s have been replaced by people who have joined a successful team, not built one. It's a subtle difference, but an important one.

These people are very capable and very competant -- keeping Ferrari in the top tier is no easy feat. But there is clearly something missing, some magic that is needed for that extra little push.

I don't like Alonso as a person, but as a driver he's won me over. I think that he is excelling at making a good car go very well. Massa only looks ordinary because the F150 is, frankly, ordinary. It belongs behind the McLaren and Red Bull cars, fighting with the Mercedes. And unless someone exceptional like Vettel* can be persuaded to take Massa's place, whomever ends up in the second Ferrari will continue to look ordinary next year.

The problem is that the other major teams will be turning their attentions to 2012 at the same time. Red Bull is your winner for 2011, so there's no point in either them or McLaren to keep developing. So Ferrari is not going to have a real head start on the rest of the field by abandoning 2011 now.

I'm sure the boys at the track will continue to give it all they've got for the rest of the year.

I just don't see any results changing substantially, either now or in 2012.

---

* = which will never happen, but what a championship season it would be!

Your 2014 F1 Engines

Autosport reports on the current vision of a 2014 F1 engine:

• 1.6L V6 turbo
• 15,000 RPM rev limit
• no external starter
• runs under electric power in the pit lane:

  Rule 5.19: The car must be run in electric mode (no ignition and no fuel supply to the engine) at all times when being driven in the pit lane.

• mandatory 8-speed gearbox

Victory!

So I suppose it would be inappropriate to let the first victory of 2011 pass unremarked. Alonso clearly had the car and the talent to get the job done on Sunday at Silverstone, romping away from the Red Bulls and the obviously disadvantaged McLaren in a manner that only Vettel had demonstrated thus far this year.

At this point I do not think this marks a revival of Ferrari fortunes for the year. I think that Ferrari benefited from the changing conditions through the weekend by managing to find the correct solution for their car at the right times. I also think that the radically changing exhaust rules through the weekend worked to their advantage, as the more-effective systems on the Red Bulls and McLarens were being affected by the rules changes that were happening between the sessions.

So this may very well be a one-off for the year; "normal" service may well resume at the next event.

The biggest effect on the track activity was the behavior of those mangling the technical rules during the event. When the rules are being adjusted between the sessions, one cannot plan effectively to put in a program to dial the car in to the track conditions. McLaren was the most visibly affected by this, although I personally put Red Bull's vulnerability down to the effects of the uncertainty.

To announce now that the rules changes will be changed again, throwing out the new interpretations of the rules in favor of bringing in more specific regulations for 2012 -- well frankly this should have been the strategy from the start. The FIA's technical regulators really dropped the ball on this one.

So we'll enjoy the result --even if we would have preferred Massa to put a proper pass on Hamilton on the last lap -- but be fully prepared for more frustration as the rest of the season progresses.

European Progress?

It appears that if you combine A) restrictions in engine map usage with B) a low-downforce circuit, you end up with a situation where at least one of the Ferraris can run comfortably ahead of the McLarens, and with -- if not in front of -- the Red Bulls.

This race was always going to be a totally unique situation, what with the transition of regulations. Restricting the engine map usage a race before the off-throttle-blowing becomes illegal creates a single snapshot moment, one that is not really worth developing for.

It appears that Red Bull and Ferrari were well positioned for this race. The McLarens for whatever reason did not have the downforce needed to really run with the front cars. I am sure that McLaren will be better positioned in Silverstone, where the high-speed track is more likely to suit their cars. One can speculate that this may be more due to the Ferrari and Red Bull falling back into McLaren's clutches, as they have so far apparently avoided the performance loss due to engine mappings; one might speculate that this was more due to McLaren using the regulation to a better advantage than their rivals.

So all that verbiage aside, I fully expect that Silverstone will bring us the usual top three battling it out, albeit rather closer together than Valencia showed. There is a very small chance that Red Bull's performance advantage is completely due to the off-throttle blown diffusers, meaning that they will suffer disproportionally when the rules change -- but frankly I doubt it.

FIA Doublespeak

Charlie Whiting talks engine maps and diffusers:

[...]

Q: Why now?

A: Because it's illegal.

Q: So why not punish the teams that have been using it?

A: Because we say that it's 'arguably' illegal. The FIA technical department can only give an opinion. The stewards are the ones that decide whether or not the opinion of the technical department is correct. [...]

I'm sure the logic of this comes down to a couple of things: first, the Stewards don't want the Technical Delegates making definitive declarations of what is or is not illegal. That would be like parking officers making declarations about what you can or cannot do with your car.

Second, the Technical Delegates don't have standing to bring forward a complaint to the Stewards as they can't be the aggrieved party. The FIA likes the system where things are investigated as they are complained about, as enlightened self interest tends to keep complaints to a minimum. In this case, practically everyone is doing exhaust-blown diffusers to some extent, so if anyone protests them they are likely to get counter-protested right back and nobody wins. An example of I'll let you cheat because you know I'm cheating.

The other thing that this system does is it encourages teams to keep knowledge of any technical violations on the parts of their competitors quiet, so that they can be sprung at a tactically opportune time. Say for example when there were Bridgestone and Michelin tires in the series, and the Michelins got excluded at a critical juncture of the season because of the way they were constructed.

The whole thing is borderline unethical. If the rules are there, play by them. If you know of a rules violation, report it.

Stupid Regulations

I'm more than a bit peeved that I added an entire extra hour on the end of the scheduled grand prix time, and it STILL managed to cut out just before the end of the 2 hour rain delay. So I got to see almost NO racing.

Also disappointed by the poor Ferrari showing. Alonso's tire gamble for intermediates backfired, and Massa managed to be in the wars. The rain was always going to make Sunday into a lottery, effectively wasting the good qualifying showing. As I commented on Saturday, it's amazing what a poor season will do for lowering standards of good news.

Also pathetic was Hamilton's trail of "incidents". He banged wheels with Webber with no consequence, then banged wheels with his team mate which managed to only put himself out. He also had a safety car speed violation, which was rendered academic by his self-inflicted elimination. I think Lauda goes too far when he claims Hamilton is going to get someone killed; but I think he needs to settle down just a bit perhaps.

But hey, let's give props to Button for being the clear master of the conditions -- fighting back from extra pit stops and a drive-through in order to put pressure on Vettel at the end, and being able to take advantage of a Vettel's uncharacteristic mistake on the last lap. I agree with Button, this was probably his greatest victory so far in his career.

Scapegoat

Continuing the theme of taking decisions for 2012: Ferrari has selected the first scapegoat for the poor results yielded in 2011. Technical Director Aldo Costa has stepped down, and has been stashed in the Ferrari road car division (at full F1 pay, good for him) to work out the remainder of his contract.

Moving Costa to the road car division is a curious decision on Ferrari's (or Fiat's) part -- it could be seen as an effort to honor the contract they had with him, or it could be seen as an effort to deny his services to a competing F1 team.

Either way it doesn't look good. In the first explanation they are admitting that this could be more of a political shake up at the F1 team; in the second, they are admitting that Costa might be good enough to make a difference at another team -- which is also an admission that this is a political, rather than a technical, change.

Also consider statements claiming that the 2012 car has already been started. May is a bit early to be actively designing the next year's car, this usually starts in late July or August. This all makes it look like the 2011 season is already being written off as sub-par.