That's All: Schumacher Done?

So now the music has started to stop on the driver's seats for 2013.  Lewis Hamilton will move to Mercedes, Sergio Perez moves to McLaren, and Micheal Schumacher is basically left out in the cold.

When you think about it, of the top six seats, at least four of them were already locked up: Alonso, Button, Vetel and Webber were all locked up.  Hamilton looked like a forgone conclusion, and his move briefly freed his McLaren seat until Perez got tapped.  Only Massa's seat remains in doubt of the top six; and even if Massa isn't retained, it seems extremely unlike Schumacher will get the nod there.

I wonder if Schumacher either decided he was out earlier, granting Mercedes the ability to pursue a replacement.  I somehow think that had Schumacher put his mind to it, he could have re-signed at Mercedes with very little effort.  The fact that he didn't leads one to suspect that either he or the team had approached the other some time ago about 2013 to say it wasn't on; probably him, since if he'd wanted to go elsewhere I'm sure those kinds of inquiries would be impossible to keep quiet.

So I think this means the end of the road -- again -- for Schumacher.  He has been pushing hard in the car, but somehow I don't see him happy toiling away in an even lesser car.  His return hasn't been exactly plated in glory, and his best result of the last three years -- 3rd in Valencia -- came courtesy of extremely abnormal attrition ahead of him on the road.  Yes the Mercedes wasn't up to the task.  But I don't think anyone expected that this would be the limits of his second go-around in Formula 1.  I don't think it has been the embarrassment I feared when he announced his return.  But it isn't the triumphant cap on this career that was envisioned at the time.

Summer Is Over, Back To Racing

Two more races in quick succession.  Comments on Belgium:

• I called the trigger of the accident at turn 1 -- Grosjean didn't give Hamilton enough room, and they touched.  After that, Sir Issac Newton did all the work.  I didn't think that Grosjean should have been suspended for that move.  It was optimistic, yes; it was dangerous, yes; it was wrong, yes.  But if he'd done it at turn 2 instead of turn 1 and only taken Hamilton off, he'd only have received a grid penalty for Italy instead.  The fact that two championship contending cars were taken off, along with one car being tossed over Alonso's nose a couple of feet from Alonso's head I think played disproportionately highly in the minds of the stewards.
• That said, I didn't mind Button winning in Belgium.  Alonso escapes his bad luck with his championship lead intact, and one less race remaining for those behind him to catch him.
• I sure hope that the first turn collision doesn't make enclosed cockpits "inevitable".  Enclosed cockpits would be even harder to see out of, especially during wet races, and potentially would hinder drivers' abilities to get out of the car quickly.
• Maldonaldo probably should have received a one-race ban.  He's been involved in too many incidents this year and needs to calm the f--k down a bit.  That said, his jumped start made me laugh, recalling previous drivers explaining that their transgressions were not jumped starts, they were just "good anticipation".  And the comments about Ferraris in Italy who's races just happened to start a half second before everyone else's.  Good times, good times.

Quick comments on Italy:

• TSN didn't start the qualifying coverage with the commentary feed, and frankly I think that would have been an interesting experiment -- just have the noises of the cars for the qualifying session.  Reminded me of that time a few years ago where some labor dispute left CBC broadcasting hockey games with no commentary, only the noises from the rink.  Sometimes the commentary is just blather, with the hosts talking just for the sake of filling air time, not leaving the viewers the time to think about what has happened for themselves.
• And while we're on the topic of TSN, the lack of proper audio-video synchronization continues to annoy me.  The video was about two-thirds of a second ahead of the audio, you could really tell on the in-car shots where the driver would pull the down-shift lever and the engine note wouldn't immediately adjust.
• Ferrari's playing with tows down the main straight in qualifying was interesting, but ultimately futile since A) Alonso had mechanical problems on his run, and B) Massa actually managed to go faster at the end when he didn't have a tow.  Monza is probably the only circuit where such playing around might even possibly be productive.
• I though the aggressive defense that Vettel was putting up against Alonso through turn 3 was probably over the line, but only marginally.  If Alonso had lost control and speared the Red Bull then it would be open and shut... but it wasn't.  It is another data point for wondering where the FIA is going with this crack down.  So between this, Vettel-vs-Button from Germany, and Hulkenberg-vs-Maldonaldo in Hungary, we can predict that had Vettel hung onto the track in Germany and been punted by Button, the stewards would have punished Button for failing to leave sufficient room for Vettel.  I'm not sure how I feel about that.
• Seems like a strange quirk that there was so much action coming out of turn 3, that the cars would be suitably fast yet not suffer from following so close behind the car ahead.  This is probably just a quirk of the track and the current technical rules.
• Vettel's falling away with another engine problem was disappointing from a competition standpoint.  I would rather Ferrari beat Red Bull on the road, not because the Red Bull is parked at the side of the road.
• Button's retirement probably puts his title hopes to bed for this year.  While there's still some of the spin-the-wheel-of-random-results going on, Alonso's Ferrari is consistently near the top of the results sheet race in and race out.  While it is possible someone -- Button or someone else -- could put together a string of race wins and catch him, I don't see it happening unless Alonso suffers another DNF.
• The Renault powered cars are probably glad to see the back of Italy and Belgium, since they don't seem to be deal well with the requirements for straight line speed over all other considerations.  Webber especially hasn't done well since the summer break ended.
• This time I'm not as impressed with Perez's results storming through the field at the end of the race.  He showed good tire management to drag his first tires as far as he did, and then had the benefit of exponentially fresher tires over the opposition at the end.  It was a good strategic call, and while Perez had to be competent to pull it off, I don't see it as an exceptional drive.  Plus, of course, it profited from at least Button's early departure, if not Vettel's as well.

Data Point

Kinda interesting that almost immediately after I wrote about the FIA having to decide what happens when cars collide because one is trying to stay on the track that Maldonaldo gets involved in an incident.

The details: Maldonaldo was catching Hulkenburg's Force India.  Maldonaldo made a pass attempt from wa-a-a-a-y back, and had to fight the car to control it on the exit.  This required him to counter-steer to control some over-steer as he put the power down.  Unfortunately for him, Hulkenberg was still hanging on around the outside, giving Maldonaldo lots of room.  Not enough, as Maldonaldo's counter-steer thrust the Williams' front left tire into the Force India's side pod, and Hulkenburg was summarily punted off the race track.

Perhaps because it was Maldonaldo, who's shown no reluctance to bounce things off his car should it suit him, the stewards awarded him a drive-through penalty for "causing a collision".

Not "causing an avoidable collision".

I guess if you are the driver making the pass, the onus is on you to make it cleanly.

At least we have a data point to hang the stewards with in the future.

On Off-Track Excursions

So with Hungary weekend already under way as I write this I'm certainly late to the party, but I wanted to comment on the rules about leaving the track during races in general, and Vettel's penalty from last weekend in Germany in particular.

The relevant section in the FIA Formula 1 2012 Sporting Regulations say:

20.2 Drivers must use the track at all times. For the avoidance of doubt the white lines defining the track edges are considered to be part of the track but the kerbs are not.  A driver will be judged to have left the track if no part of the car remains in contact with the track.  Should a car leave the track the driver may rejoin, however, this may only be done when it is safe to do so and without gaining any advantage.

The evidence, such as it is, turns out to be pretty clear cut:

There we see Mr. Vettel well off the left hand side of the track as denoted by the white lines.  In this case, the blue-and-white kerbing is not part of the track.

But -- and this to my eyes is the most interesting part -- the McLaren of Mr. Button is hanging off the track.  Mr. Button has clearly not left the track, since his right hand wheels are still between the white lines.

Here's why this is interesting:  had Mr. Vettel kept his car between the white lines -- or just tried to hang on to the track with this right had wheels -- the two cars would have collided.  The question as to who would have been "responsible" for the collision would be a toss up based on which result the view would most like to see.  Button's supporters could argue that since he had the inside line around the hairpin, his car had "the racing line" and therefore Vettel should have yielded.  On the other hand, since Vettel's car was on the outside, it had the racing line once the line came out to him, and Button should have yielded.

Personally, I would rather Button have the place since he is further behind Alonso in the Driver's Championship table; but I also personally see the value in drivers given the option to avoid collisions and surviving to contest another corner, so I would have ruled in Vettel's favor.

I think if the FIA is going to enforce this "leaving the track" regulation in these circumstances they are going to have to be clearer about who has to yield in these circumstances, because otherwise drivers are going to hang onto the track and we are going to have collisions as cars race.

A prime example of this would be the collision in Valencia between Maldonado and Hamilton.  Yes, one could argue that Maldonado was off track immediately before the collision; however we could equally argue that Hamilton pushed him there.  In any event, the stewards evidently considered Hamilton's retirement punishment enough; and Maldonado was awarded a drive-through penalty for being there at the time.

The FIA really needs to figure this one out.  If drivers end up retiring after collisions caused by desperately hanging on to the track to avoid this "leaving the track" nonsense -- how is that a net benefit for F1?

Three

Alonso was the first to two wins on the year, and it seems somewhat fitting that he is the first to three.

I have to admit I knew the outcome before I started watching.  TSN scheduled the race to be on at 11PM on Sunday night, and there's no way I can stay up to 1AM watching racing if I have to be at work the next day.  However, after carefully ignoring the internet for all of Sunday, I accidentally brought twitter up in the office this morning, and poof -- I knew who won.  Not anything else or how he got there (although since I knew Alonso started on pole I could guess).

It is interesting that in the face of changing conditions on Saturday, Alonso planted his Ferrari on the pole -- and then managed to be competitive on Sunday.  Just like in Britain.  Ferrari must have the car pretty well figured out by now if they can be at or near the front under such bizarre conditions.

In fact, for all the complaining that Ferrari has been doing about this year's car, it has been remarkably reliable, and while it hasn't been the fastest every time out, it has usually been there or there abouts for most of the afternoon.  The result is that Alonso is enjoying the best average finishes and the best reliability of all of the front runners.

Ferrari has been here before -- I seem to recall a period where Schumacher went something like two and a half years without a mechanical failure while driving Ferraris.

So while I'm sure that eventually statistics will catch up to Alonso, I'm enjoying the ride while it hasn't.

What is incredible is that we are only at half distance for the championship and Alonso has a full race win in hand over everyone else.  So even if he does have a bad race or a collision with someone it won't be fatal to his year.

A Championship-Affirming Result

Quick thoughts from Britain:

• Alonso was right after the race -- it is disappointing to run at the front all afternoon only to be passed shortly before the end by a car that's doing better on its tires.  But had things gone the other way -- had Alonso been digging around in third and managed to bag second only laps from the end, we would all be ecstatic.  At the end of the day, Alonso extends his Championship lead over everyone except Webber.  So while a win would have been nice, this result is the sort that can lead to championships.
• Nice to see Massa have a decent day and end up with fourth.  That makes this weekend the most successful for Ferrari yet this year.
• Not cool: TSN pre-empted live coverage of F1 for Wimbeldon tennis.
• Also not cool: the TSN-main channel broadcast the F1 race at 11PM Eastern on Sunday night.
• So I ended up taping, and watching, the french RDS coverage of both qualifying and the race itself.  Since I'm not french-speaking, it was harder to follow -- although the only thing I was totally lost on was the translations of the itallian Ferrari transmissions.

The Illusion Of Improvement

So one more thought on Valencia.  I've seen a bunch of self-congratulatory blather in the media from a bunch of teams which normally don't feature in the points talking about how much they improved for this race.  The problem is that A) this race saw higher attrition than we normally would see, and B) the attrition was sharply biased towards the normal front of the grid, benefiting far more drivers than normal.

Consider that if Vettel and Grosjean's Renault engines not gone bang, your podium top three would have been Vettel- Alonso- Grosjean.  Pretend that Maldonaldo and Hamilton had kept their heads rather than running into each other, and suddenly Schumacher's impressive third becomes a less-impressive seventh -- still his best result of the season but less than we've expected. Webber plummets to eighth.  Many of the rest of the accidental points scorers get pushed back out into the cold.

So personally I'm not as impressed with the improvement these teams are claiming.

Yes, you have to be in the right place to profit from other people's problems, but so many of these places benefited from the abnormally high attrition rate that you can't seriously claim drastic improvement.

Now in the old days of F1 when the attrition rate was regularly higher, with fewer than 14 cars routinely running at the flag, seeing improvements was legitimate because you could count on the attrition rate continuing to be high.  Today, when usually we only loose one or two cars, and sometimes not even that, you can't count on cars ahead of you falling away.

(I'm not counting the absence of either Massa or Button as a contributing factor, since while in the long run it is, in the recent past it has unfortunately been business as usual for these two drivers.)