Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Best Possible Result

Let's be honest -- third from Korea was an outstanding result.  With McLaren cursed with bad luck twice, the podium was there for the taking, and Alonso delivered.  Underscoring the lack of coherent opposition was Massa's 4th place, making this absolutely the best result possible.  Red Bull was just in another world and was never going to be caught short of bad luck in traffic or mechanical difficulties.

Ferrari is perhaps the #2 team at this point in the season, the problem is that Red Bull is the #1 and has an advantage in hand going into the end of the season.

For some reason both Mercedes and Renault have fallen away as the season ages -- the former more than the latter.  This isn't really surprising in the case of Renault, in fact one could make the case that their level of competition has remained more consistent through the end of the season than in previous years.  Mercedes' drop from the list of competitive teams is more surprising.

Short of Vettel having another DNF this year, I seriously doubt that Alonso can capture the title.  Vettel has had two mechanical failures, more than his share.  And collisions in traffic are really too much to hope for.  Alonso has suffered in traffic twice, again more than his share.  The car's reliability has been outstanding.  But all things being equal the Red Bull is faster.  So at this point, the title's is Vettel's to lose.

Ferrari can't stop at this point though because if Vettel does have some bad luck, Ferrari still has to be in a position to take advantage of it.