Lets Review:

These are new the teams selected by the FIA for inclusion in the 2010 F1 World Championship:

• USF1: Dead and finished. Probably permanently.
• Manor Racing: Now Virgin Racing. This may or may not be a buy-out, it is hard to tell. They have introduced, and started testing, a real racing car.
• Campos Meta: Now Hispania Racing Team, or HRT. Original owners no longer involved. Still waiting for the Dallara-designed and built car to be introduced, although that is allegedly going to happen on Thursday or Friday, a week before Bahrain. This means the first time it does any running, trivial or not, will be free practice session one at a race weekend.
• Lotus: so far the most stable of the lot. No ownership changes, and they have introduced a (plain, slow) F1 car and done some testing.
• BMW-Sauber: lost their entry while BMW was trying to exit involvement, only to gain it back when Toyota abruptly departed. Perhaps the most ironic team on the grid, since BMW is not involved at all any more, and the engines are Ferrari. Probably the best prepared of all the "new" teams since they really are not that new. We can't really count them as in trouble because all their drama happened last year.

So from five teams, you have one outright failure, possibly two total ownership changes, one very uncompetitive team, and one moderately successful team which again doesn't count because they are not really that new.

Oh, and the FIA has decided that Stefan GP won't be participating this year, even though USF1 has failed.

Now to be fair, part of the problem is that the first group of teams to sign up for 2010 did so when the FIA was planning the spending cap rules. The championship formula that eventually was decided on was very different, meaning that all these teams were suddenly underfinanced. USF1's Ken Anderson claims that the delay in sorting out the regulations for 2010 (there wasn't a peace brokered until mid- or late July 2009) meant that the new teams had no idea what set of goal posts they would actually be working towards until very late.

So you end up with a truncated timeline to meet a standard that suddenly would cost a lot more money than initially planned.

With these factors in mind, it isn't much of a surprise that the new teams would have difficulties.

USF1 Staggers Towards A Conclusion

I know I'm kinda beating a dying horse here, but the accident is too compelling to look away:

• James Allen discusses the pros and cons of the FIA permitting USF1 to miss races in a bid to get their car sorted. In my opinion it isn't going to happen, no matter how bad USF1's failure will make the FIA's expansion selection work look. However, that will all be handily blamed on the now departed Mosley.
• Campos has sorted its immediate future, nixing our discussion of a merger with USF1. Joe Saward talks about how the Stefan GP might buy USF1's entry (along with other assets) and will be able to participate in Bahrain branded as USF1, at least for a few weeks. I approve of the irony of an American-branded race team being entirely made up of ex-Japanese equipment and European management.

Campos, USF1 to merge?

Motosports.com has an article detailing the woes of Campos Meta. It includes speculation that USF1 might merge with Campos:

According to the magazine, US F1 investor Chad Hurley isn't happy with the progress the by Ken Anderson and Peter Windsor managed American team has sofar made, and has decided to pull the plug and has stopped his financial support. Hurley is now considering to help Campos-Meta by paying the Dallara and Cosworth bills and merging US F1 and Campos-Meta into one team. Which would open the door for the Serbian Stefan Formula One team, they could take over the thirteenth and last slot for 2010.

This makes sense on paper -- Campos has a car in Dalara, but no money. The money behind USF1 is unhappy with the progress, so they effectively have no car. Putting USF1's money together with Campos' Dalara car just might get a combined organization -- probably mostly USF1 staff, since they've been actually doing things with cars for the past little while -- to a grid sometime this year.

The stories of USF1's impending demise have come more frequently in the recent days, and the silence from the team itself doesn't do them any favors as far as viability goes. I am still stunned that Peter Windsor of all people apparently couldn't get his ducks lined up properly. Especially considering that USF1 was announced over a year ago, they had a substantial head start on everyone else and to come up short does nothing positive for them.

I know that in this media-driven business it could all be nothing, everyone merely reporting on everyone else's speculation, but by my watch there is less than a month to go before Bahrain. If USF1 is going to be a legitimate team they need to get something going, and quickly. If they are going to be merged with Campos, that needs to get going quickly too. Time is definitely not on their side any more.

This also doesn't do many favors for the FIA's expansion of F1, if two of the four teams picked as new entrants can't cut it right from the beginning...

More Cars, Deadpool Update

Recently:

• The Force India VJM03, which looks to be a pretty conservative car. No Red Bull kink, no sculpting on the nose, and very little in the way of interesting aero at the back. There's already speculation that the aero isn't going to get it done for Force India in 2010.
• The Red Bull RB6: the kink, sculpting on the nose, and a similar steep drop in the sidepods down toward the car's rear end to that seen on the McLaren. Oh, and another huge shark fin, all dressed in the mandatory deep blue that makes it hard to see what is going on. I'd love to see an overhead shot of this car.
• ...aaand Autosport has a spy-shot of the new Lotus. This car looks as odd as the Red Bull RB5 did last year, however I have my doubts about the Lotus' potential.

I think that's all of last year's teams debuted, plus Virgin and the not-yet-cleared-to-participate Stefan GP. So I think we are waiting on a formal launch for Lotus, plus USF1 and Campos.

Meanwhile from a deadpool perspective, Motorsports.com reports that the FIA is insisting that teams must show up and participate at all F1 events for 2010:

From a sporting and regulatory point of view, each team that has registered for the championship is obliged to take part in every event of the season. Any failure to take part, even for just one championship event, would constitute an infringement both of the Concorde Agreement and the FIA regulations.

Pretty clear.

This puts Campos in severe danger, since their finance is definitely not sorted out.

There are persistent stories about USF1 being in trouble, but I find it hard to believe that Peter Windsor would have been involved this long and not had his ducks lined up at this late date.

Really Weird

Stefan GP is going to Bahrain, entry or no entry:

Stefan Grand Prix writes history! SGP becomes the first team in F1 history who did send a 40 foot container full of equipment to the race in Bahrain without having entry for 2010 season!

I can't decide if this is heroically ballsy or absurdly stupid... although I'm leaning towards the latter.

Also for the 'weird' file: I read somewhere that new teams might be permitted to miss up to three events this year without penalty, but I can't find the link for that.

Update: JA on F1:

Meanwhile it appears that the proposal for new teams to be allowed to have three ‘no-shows’ at Grands Prix has now been agreed. It appears that these can be taken at any time so it is theoretically possible for a new team to miss the first three races of the season an start at Shanghai on April 18th.

JA also talks about Campos' difficulties -- Ferrari is thought to be blocking the sale of the team to another party, and either the buyer or the seller owes Ferrari a chunk of money...

Deadpool Update: Campos Meta

Campos Meta has acknowledged that they won't have enough money to go testing before the season starts.

Campos likely to sit out all winter tests

Campos is likely to miss all four official group tests prior to Bahrain's 2010 season opener, according to the new Spanish team's head of strategy.

"Bahrain is a test, it's not a first race for us," Daniel Eisen is quoted as saying by the Associated Press.

This handicaps the team from a development perspective -- all the other teams who do testing will be that much further ahead when the season starts. Of course this pre-supposes that there will be money to do development as the year progresses. This now starts to sound highly unlikely.

Whatever other consequences this has, it certainly won't help Bruno Senna, who now won't drive the car until the first session at Bahrain. If I were Senna, I'd start to wonder about who I'd signed with for 2010.

Deadpool Update: Virgin Racing

...I'm beginning to thing I need a deadpool icon.

Anyways, there are doin's a-happening at Virgin.

The interesting thing to take away here is that Virgin Racing is having problems finding a title sponsor. This is because many of the potential sponsors are worried about getting drowned out by publicity-hungry Virgin.

This is interesting because it means Virgin is not a "title sponsor", their arrangements are different. See also my comments about Richard Branson not spending any money he didn't have to.

So unless this gets sorted before the beginning of the year, I think we'd have to promote Virgin to the list of potential failures in 2010.

Deadpool Update: Campos Meta

Campos could sell team before 2010 debut

[...] The report said Campos is looking at either partly or completely selling the team before the Bahrain season opener, and possibly as soon as next week.

"It is not a secret that we do not have the budget. And time is scarce," a source confirmed. [...]

My, that was low hanging fruit, wasn't it?

2010 Deadpool

Well I went 0-for-3 on my initial predictions last year. I predicted that Honda and Torro Rosso would be gone this year, and that Williams and Red Bull would be the low-hanging fruit for 2010.

So Bernie Ecclestone is predicting two team failures even before the first grid. His low-hanging fruit: USF1 and Campos. So lets quickly have a look at the current grid, plus first-alternate-elect, and see if we can call any failures.

The Establishment:McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull, Williams, Mercedes. All definitely in.

Not Really Establishment: Torro Rosso. Red Bull's junior team is getting their own manufacturing capability, which means they are going to have to design their own car. This was a necessary step in separating the team from their big money parent. Red Bull wants out of Torro Rosso -- they'll get sold sometime this season, possibly to one of the potential entrants who were thwarted during this summer's expansion.

Similarly I drop Force India in here. While there were some surprising results in 2009, and while team owner Vijay Mallya hasn't run out of money yet, I really don't know anything about the ownership structure of the team. Results will continue to depend on the organization being a McLaren B team. I will say they will continue through 2010.

Former Members Of The Establishment: Renault is executing a graceful exit by selling 75% of the team to a third party. Renault as an organization will be out of F1 within three years; however the team should be good to continue on at least through 2010.

Similarly, Sauber (ex-BMW) will be good to participate all through 2010. Technically the team should be able to perform in the top half of the grid, although I have doubts of their ability to either step up to the top tier, or to keep up with the big teams in terms of ongoing development through a season.

First-Alternate-Elect Stefan GP has acquired the designs for Toyota's 2010 car, and as such qualifies as a "Former Member." The team intends to test their car next year if they are not permitted to race. Should someone fall out before Australia, Stefan GP may get the nod to show up. Personally I don't give them much of a chance of being able to show up in 2010, even if asked to. If space opens up for 2011, look for them to show up then -- and we'll re-evaluate them then.

The New Boys: Lotus Racing is the organization bankrolled by the Malaysian government. The Lotus name has a storied history, but unfortunately the most recent parts have not been covered in glory. The Malaysians have money, so the team will participate through 2010. However if the results are not there, they may not make it to 2012.

USF1 has been making a splash all year with their intentions to race in 2010. I believe they will have the finance to make it through 2010. The results, combined with the F1 visibility in the USA and whether or not an economic recovery starts to take hold there will dictate how much further they get.

Virgin Racing has an infusion of cash from the Virgin brand. While this is a splashy sponsorship, keep in mind that Richard Branson never spends money he doesn't have to and decided not to pursue title sponsorship with Brawn. Nick Wirth is involved, and while his ownership of Simtek didn't go well, he isn't the owner this time, just technical director. I would say they have a chance, probably a better chance than Lotus or Campos. But not much better.

I don't know anything about Campos Meta. However they do have Bruno Senna driving for them, so I presume that money will be OK for at least the first part of the season.

My predictions:

I would say that the bubble teams are Campos Meta and Lotus, with Stefan GP not being able to show up even if asked. Virgin could end up on the bubble next year depending on results.

Tune in next year for the laughing and pointing.